"უჩინარი ხელის" ეფექტი ნავთობის ფასის განსაზღვრისას

 პაატა აროშიძე – ეკონომიკის მეცნიერებათა კანდიდატი, ბათუმის შოტა რუსთაველსი სახელობის სახელმწიფო უნივერიტეტის ასოცირებული პროფესორი 

msoflio meurneobis ganviTarebisaTvis, satransporto sistemisa da zogadad ekonomikuri winsvlisaTvis didi mniSvneloba aqvs nedli navTobis fass, romelic yalibdeba msoflio bazarze da met-nakleb gavlenas axdens sawvavis Rirebulebaze. fasebis formireba sabazro ekonomikis sistemaSi mTlianad damokidebulia moTxovna-miwodebaze, magram arsebobs iseTi arasafaso determinantebi, romlebic gavlenas axdenen sabazro wonasworobiTi fasis dadgenaze da xSir SemTxvevaSi, am determinantebis gavlena sagrZnobia nedli navTobis sawyis fasze.

navTobisa da navTobproduqtebis msoflio fasebi formirdeba ara im qveynebis mier, romlebic moipoveben am resursebs, aramed niu-iorkSi, londonsa da singapurSi, sadac ganTavsebulia navTobproduqtebis saerTaSoriso birJebi.

navTobis saerTaSoriso bazarze wamyvani pozicia uWiravs 1980 wels Camoyalibebul londonis birJas, sadac formirdeba fiuCersuli da ofcionuri kontraqtebi navTobproduqtebze (nedli navTobi, brentis warmoSobisa; bunebrivi airi da mZime sawvavi navTobi). birJas hyavs 35 wevri da ganTavsebulia londonis forvardul birJasTan. birJas emsaxureba londonis sakliringo palata (London Clearing House).

birJaze ideba Semdegi saxis kontraqtebi:

Brent Crude oil Futures	fiuCersuli kontraqtebi brentis tipis nedl navTobze
Gas Oil Futures	gaznavTobis fiuCersebi, (gaznavTobi warmoadgens naxSirwyalbadebis Senarevs, romelic Sedgeba: navTobis fraqciisagan, miRebuli atmosferuli an vakuumuri gadaqaCviT; dizelis sawvavisagan da katalizatoruli krekingisagan miRebuli nedleulisagan
Natural Gas Futures	fiuCersebi bunebriv airze
Electricity Base load Futures	fiuCersebi eleqtroobaze

2005 wlis seqtembramde birJa iwodeboda saerTaSorisod - I (International Petroleum Exchange), oqtombridan mas oficialurad ewoda interkontinentaluri fiuCersuli birJa - ICE Futures (Intercontinental Exchange Futures).

navTobis fasebis dadgenaSi mniSvnelovan rols asrulebs 2001 wels aSS-Si Camoyalibebuli amerikuli onlain birJa - ICE (Intercontinental Exchange), romlis praqtikul mflobelsac warmoadgenen iseTi kompaniebi, rogorebicaa British Petroleum, Goldman Sach da Morgan Stanley. birJam SeiZina londonSi ganTavsebuli evropis nedleulis birJis aqciebi 67,5 aSS mln. dolarad. aRniSnul birJaze yoveldRiurad ideba 1,1 mlrd aSS dolaris garigebebi.

navTobis fasebis formireba xdeba ara marto navTobis saerTaSoriso birJebze, aramed sxvadasxva faqtorebis zemoqmedebiT, iseTebiT, rogoricaa saerTaSoriso da politikuri viTareba, mdgomareoba navTobis eqsportior da navTobis importior qveynebSi da a.S. SesaZlebelia kidev mravali faqtoris CamoTvla, rac met-naklebad aisaxeba navTobis fasze. am faqtorebis gavlena mniSvnelovania, yvelaze metad zemoqmedebs navTobis fasze da cvlis mas orive mimarTulebiT.

navTobis eqsportiori qveynebis umravlesoba TavianT biujets adgens imis gaTvaliswinebiT, rom msoflio bazarze navTobis maRali fasi SenarCundeba, xolo navTobis momxmarebeli qveynebis mTavari sazrunavia bazarze navTobis dabali fasis dafiqsireba. nedli navTobis maqsimaluri Rirebulebis dros, ramac 1 barelze 140 aSS. dolari Seadgina, amerikis SeerTebul Statebs mouwia navtobis strategiuli maragebis gaxsna, Tavisi deficitis Sesavsebad. navTobze maRali fasiT ki yvelaze meti sargebeli miiRo ruseTis federaciam, romelic Tavis biujets navTobis maRali fasis SenarCunebaze amyarebda.

fasebis rogorc zrda, ise Semcireba riskebTanaa dakavSirebuli, radgan SeiZleba krizisebi gamoiwvios. SeiZleba vivaraudoT, rom 2009-2010 wlebis krizisis eskalacias xeli mniSvnelovanwilad Seuwyo navTobis fasebis zrdam.

navTobis fasebis orive mimarTulebiT cvlileba, saSualebas iZleva winaswar vivaraudoT mimdinare movlenebi. kerZod, navTobze fasebis zrda ZiriTadad aisaxeba da problemas uqmnis maRalteqnologiurad ganviTarebul qveynebs, radgan am qveynebSi didia navTobproduqtebze moTxovna. raRac etapze gazrdili fasi aferxebs ekonomikur ganviTarebas da iwvevs an gaCerebas ekonomikisa, an – stagnacias. es procesebi sxvadasxva ganviTarebis donis qveynebSi sxvadasxva periodiT grZeldeba. zogierT qveyanaSi, romelTac SeuZliaT TavianTi rezervebiT deficitis Sevseba, procesi male Cacxreba da ekonomika daiwyebs zrdas, xolo im qveynebSi, romelTa maragebi mcirea, dacemis procesi grZeldeba manam, sanam ekonomika cikluri zrdis bunebriv dones ar daubrundeba. aqedan gamomdinare, planetis wamyvani qveynebis survilia ar dauSvan navTobsa da navTobproduqtebze fasebis zrda. amis misaRwevad isini iyeneben maT xelT arsebul yvela, maT Soris politikur berketebsac. rodesac vsaubrobT ganviTarebul qveynebze, pirvel rigSi vgulisxmobT aSS-s, iaponiasa da dasavleT evropis qveynebs. gaTvlebi swored am qveynebis moTxovnebis mixedviTaa gaangariSebuli. mxedvelobidan ar unda gamogvrCes iseTi mzardi ekonomikis mqone qveynebi, rogoricaa CineTi, indoeTi, brazilia, sadac ekonomikisa da mosaxleobis zrdis kvalobaze izrdeba navTobproduqtebze moTxovna.

2014 wels CineTi gaxda navTobis pirveli importiori qveyana da es maCvenebeli dinamiurad mzardia. rogorc cnobilia, globalurma ekonomikurma krizisma CineTsa da zogadad azias gverdi auara (zogierTi analitikosi fiqrobda, rom globaluri ekonomikuri krizisis meore talRa aziidan agordeboda, magram es jer-jerobiT ar marTldeba), amis ZiriTadi mizezi iyo swored is, rom krizisamdel periodSi CineTma SeZlo navTobis strategiuli maragebis Sevseba, ise rom xeluxlebeli maragebis gamoyeneba ar daWirda, maSin, roca aSS-m gaxsna xeluxlebeli maragebi. CineTs dReisaTvis arsebuli sacavebiT navTobis maragi yofnis 50-60 dRis ganmavlobaSi, 2020 wlisaTvis saxelmwifo programiT aigeba kidev 10 navTobsacavi. navTobis dabali fasis pirobebSi CineTi cdilobs kidev ufro meti maragebis dagrovebas.

ganviTarebuli ekonomikis mqone qveynebisaTvis, romlebic warmoadgenen msoflio politikis dominantebs, mniSvnelovania navTobze dabali fasebis SenarCuneba.

ganvixiloT navTobis bazris monawile meore mxare – navTobis mompovebeli qveynebi, romelTa erovnuli simdidris dagroveba damokidebulia navTobis maRal fasze. diagramaze naCvenebia navTobis is fasi, romelic awyobT navTobmompovebel qveynebs, raTa maTi biujeti iyos udeficito.

diagrama 1

wyaro: http://www.bloomberg.com

rogorc diagramidan Cans, eqsportiori qveynebi (grda arabeTis gaerTianebuli saemiroebisa, yatarisa da quveitisa) miiswrafvian navTobis maRali fasisaken, rac ewinaaRmdegeba momxarebeli qveynebis survils. navTobis gaiafeba xels ar aZlevs pirvel rigSi ruseTis federacias, romelic erT-erT udides navTob mimwodebels warmoadgens da udeficito biujetisaTvis misTvis mniSvnelovania, navTobis msoflio fasis SenarCuneba 105 aSS dolaris niSnulze.

krizisebi, romlebic bolo ocwleulSi ganviTarda, ZiriTadad ganpirobebulia “navTobis omebiT”, gansakuTrebiT aRsaniSnavia siriisa da egviptis krizisebi da ukrainaSi arsebuli viTareba, romelsac win uZRoda ruseT-ukrainis “gazis omi”. ruseTis mimarT gamocxadebuli dasavleTis politika, pirvel rigSi mimarTulia imisaken, rom maqsimalurad Seamciron navTobis Rirebuleba, raTa ekonomikurad da Sesabamisad politikurad daasuston ruseTis federacia. aseTma politikam ki SeiZleba gamoiwvios ufro farTomasStabiani saomari viTareba, romelic SesaZlebelia xangrZliv omSi gadaizardos!

Tu davuSvebT imas, rom momavali konfliqti ruseTis mxridan gamowveuli iqneba navTobis dabali fasidan gamomdinare da iqneba inspirirebuli ruseTis mier, ismis kiTxva: SersaZlebelia Tu ara, vixiloT ruseT-CineTis tandemi? Cvenis azriT, es nakleb savaraudoa, radgan CineTis survilia SenarCundes navTobis dabali fasi da moaxdinos ekonomikis dinamiuri zrda. saomar konfliqtSi CarTva CineTisaTvis uaxloesi 30 wlis ganmavlobaSi miuRebelia, manam, sanam is ar gaxdeba zesaxelmwifo ekonomikuri da politikuri mniSvnelobiT.

Tu SevajamebT am or pozicias, mivdivarT Semdeg daskvnamde: navTobis maRali fasi, romelic misaRebia navTobmompovebeli qveynebisaTvis, miuRebelia navTobmomxmarebelTaTvis, radgan iwvevs ekonomikur kriziss, xolo navTobis dabali fasi, romelic misaRebia navTobmomxmarebeli qveynebisaTvis, miuRebelia navTobmompovebelTaTvis. navTobisa da gaz produqtebis Semcvleli energomatareblebi – fiqalis gazi, mzisa da qaris energiis gamoyeneba mniSvnelovan gavlenas ver axdens arsebul viTarebaze. SeuZlebelia iseTi fasis daweseba, romelic sruliad daakmayofilebs rogorc navTobmompovebel, ise – navTobmomxmarebel qveynebs. sakmaod rTulia vivaraudoT aseTi fasi, magram dRes arsebuli fasi (60,64 aSS dolari, 14.06.2015 w.) dabalia da Cveni gaTvlebiT optimaluri fasi unda Seadgendes 80-85 aSS dolars 1 barelze.

imisaTvis, rom situacia dastabilizdes, Cvenis azriT saWiroa, im qveynebma, romlebic awarmoeben energotevad produqcias, Seamciron ekonomikuri zrdis tempebi 4-5 %-is farglebSi, Tumca, dRevandeli viTareba gviCvenebs, rom zrdis tempi arc ise maRalia; aseve saWiroa iseTi RonisZiebebis gatareba, romelic ganazogadebs navTobis fass da ar iqneba daSvebuli fasis, rogorc “politikuri iaraRis” gamoyeneba, rom navTobis realuri Rirebuleba mxolod bazarma gansazRvros, magram “uCinari xelis” efeqti, navTobis fasis gansazRvraSi unda Semcirdes.